Decision Science · Quantitative Modeling · AI

Measuring the
cost of commitment
in organizational decisions

Independent researcher developing proprietary frameworks for irreversibility analysis, probabilistic option evaluation, and execution-gated decision governance.

II‑Score Validation Accuracy
89%(AUC=0.90)
Decisions Validated
138real‑world cases
Inter‑rater Reliability (IRR)
0.78Cohen's κ
Reversibility Extension (EGDS)
150‑200%temporal gates

Proprietary Frameworks

Three integrated systems.
One coherent theory.

SMA-03, MSCA v6, and EGDS form a unified decision science stack — from risk measurement to option evaluation to temporal governance.

Framework 01
SMA-03 v3
Irreversibility Index · Lock-in Risk Measurement
Quantifies organizational lock‑in through the II‑Score (0–1 range), five risk tiers, and temporal decay. Validated on 138 real‑world decisions (89% accuracy, AUC=0.90). Integrates metaprogram R (reality assumption) and crisis perception FD — together explaining 84% of lock‑in variance.
KEY FORMULA: E[V]_adjusted = E[V] / (1 + II²)
Framework 02
MSCA v6
Monte Carlo Scenario Analysis · Option Evaluation
Probabilistic option evaluation via Monte Carlo simulation, variance‑penalized utility U(a) = E[R(a)] - 2·Var[R(a)], and Pareto frontier optimization. Roadmap includes causal inference (DoWhy) and Extreme Value Theory.
12 identified limitations → v7 roadmap defined
Framework 03
EGDS
Execution‑Gated Decision System · Temporal Governance
Structures decision implementation through checkpoints at Days 7, 30, 60, and 90. An entropy gate (θmax = 1.2 nats) suppresses irreversible actions when policy uncertainty exceeds the threshold. Extends reversibility windows by 150‑200%.
D7 · D30 · D60 · D90
Enterprise decision intelligence